BP Energy Outlook 2030 (Jan 2013)
BP Energy Outlook 2030 (2013)
Major points (everything is directly quoted):
- World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% p.a.
from 2011 to 2030, adding 36% to global consumption by 2030.
- OECD energy consumption in 2030 is just 6% higher than in 2011 (0.3%
p.a.), and will decline in per capita terms (-0.2% p.a. 2011-30).
- Energy used for power generation grows by 49% (2.1% p.a.) 2011-30, and
accounts for 57% of global primary energy growth.
- Oil follows a long run trend of decline in its market share, with oil
increasingly concentrated in the sectors where it commands the highest
value. Gas remains on a trend of modest but steady gains in share. Coal’s
recent rapid gain in share will start to reverse soon, with a trend decline
evident by 2020.
- Assessing both global resources and “above ground” factors, North
America will continue to dominate production by 2030, even as other
regions gradually adapt to develop their resources.
- The US will likely surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2013 as the largest
liquids producer in the world (crude and bio-fuels) due to tight oil and
bio-fuels growth, but also due to expected OPEC production cuts. Russia
will likely pass Saudi Arabia for the second slot in 2013 and hold that
until 2023. Saudi Arabia regains the top oil producer slot by 2027.